Recently, complaints from MLB The Show 26 players regarding the batting system have increasingly focused on two issues: some pitches that appear to hit well have noticeably low Exit Velo; and some pitches cause a sudden shrinkage of PCI, especially noticeable in Circle Change, even near the center of the strike zone.
A new explanation has recently emerged in the community: the problem may be related to previous adjustments to Strike Zone, and the batting system hasn't fully adapted to this change.
If this hypothesis is correct, it could explain some seemingly unreasonable batting feedback. However, several counterexamples have emerged in the community, and it's currently uncertain whether low Exit Velo and PCI shrinkage are truly related to Strike Zone adjustments.
Strike Zone Conflict
The core of this theory stems from the changes to Strike Zone. MLB The Show 26 previously adjusted the strike zone, allowing pitches where part of the ball touches the edge to be called a strike, making it closer to ABS system's judgment method.
The problem is that after Strike Zone adjustment, Hitting System's judgment of in-zone and out-of-zone positions may not have changed synchronously.
If MLB 26 still handles in-zone swings and chases separately, then the most likely location to expose the problem is naturally the edge of the strike zone.
According to the current judgment, a ball that grazes the edge is already a strike and therefore cannot be left unpunished; however, within the batting system, this position may still fall outside the zone as defined by the old model.
To cover such pitches, PCI needs to move to the edge or even outside of the strike zone, and this swing might then be identified as a chase by the system.
As a result, a pitch that is technically a strike could be affected by the batting mechanism similar to chasing a bad ball. Even if the contact is close to the center and the timing is not obviously wrong, the final result may still be a smaller PCI or a lower Exit Velo.
However, an important counterexample is that pitches outside the zone do not consistently produce a low Exit Velo. For example, a slider outside the strike zone can still produce an exit velocity of 106 MPH, and a changeup below the strike zone can still produce a home run of nearly 450 feet.
If the system uses the simple logic of "reducing the exit velocity whenever there's a challenge," these results are difficult to explain. Therefore, the ball being outside the zone may not be sufficient to determine the final initial velocity.
Why Exit Velo and PCI Results Can Differ?
Perfect-Perfect Exception
Regarding these high exit velocity exceptions in The Show 26, there's a more nuanced explanation: Perfect-Perfect might be a special case.
The negative effects of throwing outside the zone may primarily affect shots that don't achieve Perfect Contact. Since Perfect-Perfect already represents the highest contact quality, even if the ball is outside the zone, it may still maintain a high exit velocity.
If this mechanism exists, it explains why powerful shots like 106 MPH and 450 feet can occur outside the zone, while weak, marginal shots frequently appear. The difference between these two outcomes likely stems more from Contact Quality than simply whether the shot is outside the zone.
The results of Perfect-Perfect shots themselves are not always easily explained intuitively by attributes. For example, a Fernando Tatis card with Power only in the 80s has still produced home runs of around 550 feet, showing why card attributes alone may not always predict results, even when players spend MLB The Show 26 stubs upgrading their lineup.
Such extreme results demonstrate that directly inferring EV patterns from Perfect-Perfect samples can easily distort judgments.
PCI Shrinkage May Be The Key
Another explanation is that shots outside the zone may not directly reduce Exit Velo for the same contact quality, but cause PCI to shrink first.
Therefore, the same shot error can result in completely different Contact Qualitys depending on the location.
When the ball is within the zone, PCI is larger, so even a slight miss from the perfect point can still produce solid contact, especially with cards whose hitting attributes justify The Show 26 stubs invested in them.
When the ball moves outside the zone, PCI shrinks significantly. A deviation of the same distance accounts for a larger proportion of the overall PCI, making it easier for the system to judge it as a poor shot.
The end result may still be a lower Exit Velo for shots thrown outside the zone, but the reason isn't necessarily a direct reduction in EV by the system. Rather, the shrinking PCI first reduces the margin of error, then the contact quality decreases, and only then is Exit Velo affected.
Therefore, the real impact of outside the zone position may not be a fixed EV penalty, but a lower margin of error. Timing may also be similarly affected, making small errors of the same degree more likely to translate into poor contact quality.
Circle Change Complicates the Theory
Circle Change is the most difficult aspect to explain in the entire MLB 26 theory.
Some of the more noticeable PCI shrinkage currently occurs in Circle Change, and even when the pitch is near the center of the strike zone, PCI can still shrink significantly. This phenomenon is difficult to explain if the problem stems solely from Chase, Zone edge, or old strike zone judgments.
This suggests that there may be other factors within The Show 26 that influence PCI size, such as Pitch Type, Movement, speed difference, or some independent difficulty adjustment. The simultaneous occurrence of anomalies in Circle Change and edge strikes does not necessarily indicate that they share the same root cause.
Therefore, attributing all recent low EV and PCI shrinkage to Strike Zone Theory may be an oversimplification.
Until these hitting mechanics are better understood, lineup construction remains one of the few factors players can directly control.
Spending MLB 26 stubs carefully on cards that better suit their current hitting approach may therefore be more practical than reacting to every unusual Exit Velo result.
Under identical timing, PCI placement, and contact quality, is there a systematic difference in the final result between a ball in the center of the zone and a ball grazing the edge of the current Strike Zone? If this difference can be consistently reproduced, then the strike zone theory truly has evidence to continue pursuing.
